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Fragility Today, Failure Tomorrow: Why You Should Track What Almost Broke

The Director's Eye Written by Felix Lenhard

The worst thing that can happen after a show is that everything goes fine.

I don’t mean the show was bad. I mean the show was fine — smooth, nothing visibly wrong, applause at the right moments, handshakes afterward. You drive home feeling competent. Maybe a little relieved. You don’t write anything down because there’s nothing obvious to write. Everything worked.

And then you do the same show three weeks later, and something breaks spectacularly in front of sixty people.

This is the trap. The failure didn’t arrive from nowhere. It had been rehearsing itself in the previous shows, quietly, just below the threshold of catastrophe. Every time you skirted the edge without falling, you got a small data point that you almost certainly ignored.

I ignored mine for longer than I’d like to admit.

The Show That Almost Fell Apart (And Didn’t)

A few years into performing, I had a show in Graz — corporate event, financial services company, end of Q3. Nice venue, attentive audience, exactly the kind of room I’d started to feel comfortable in. About halfway through, one of my effects hit a snag. Nothing the audience could see. A moment where something needed to happen in a specific sequence, and I felt, in real time, the sequence getting away from me.

I recovered. I improvised. I bridged through it with what I can only describe as desperate smoothness, and the audience saw nothing. They applauded. Someone in the front row looked genuinely astonished.

In the car afterward, I felt great. I’d navigated it. I was experienced enough to handle it. I mentally filed it under “got it” and moved on.

Two months later, doing a version of the same show in Vienna, the same effect broke completely. Not almost. Completely. I had to stop, reframe, adjust. The audience was confused for about fifteen seconds — which is an eternity in front of a live crowd — before I got things moving again.

Afterward, sitting in my hotel room, I understood what had happened. The Graz near-miss hadn’t been a success. It had been a warning I’d dismissed as a win.

Near-Misses Are Better Data Than Failures

Failures are obvious. They’re undeniable, embarrassing, and they force learning. But they’re also relatively rare if you perform consistently, which means they’re low-frequency data. You can’t build a systematic improvement practice around the occasional disaster.

Near-misses are everywhere. In almost every show, something slightly wobbles. An effect runs a few seconds longer than it should. A volunteer responds in a way you didn’t expect and you have to adjust. A line lands flat when it usually gets a laugh. You reach for something and it’s not exactly where you put it. You feel a flicker of uncertainty before you manage to project confidence.

Most performers — most people — experience these moments and then immediately move on because the show continues and everything seems fine. The near-miss doesn’t register as information because nothing bad happened.

But something almost happened. And almost is your most honest teacher.

The Debrief That Changes Everything

About a year after the Vienna incident, I started keeping what I now call a fragility log. After every show, before I do anything else — before I eat, before I check my phone, before I talk to anyone — I write down the moments where I felt uncertain. Not the failures. The wobbles.

The questions I ask myself are simple:

Was there a moment where I wasn’t sure what was going to happen? Was there a moment where I felt off-balance and had to correct? Was there anything I did differently from my standard approach and got lucky that it worked?

These aren’t comfortable questions. Answering them honestly requires a kind of ruthlessness with yourself that doesn’t come naturally after a show that went well. When the audience applauded, when the client shook your hand enthusiastically, when the host told you it was the best entertainment they’d had at one of these events — you want to bask in that. You’ve earned it.

But the fragility log doesn’t care about the applause. It wants to know what almost broke.

Patterns the Log Reveals

What I’ve found, doing this consistently over a couple of years, is that fragile moments cluster. The same effect is fragile in the same way every third or fourth show. A specific phase of my show — usually about two-thirds of the way through, when my energy is highest but my precision starts to slip — generates twice as many wobble moments as any other part of the show.

Without the log, I would never have seen these patterns. Any individual show tells you almost nothing. The show is too short, too contextual, too dependent on that particular room and that particular crowd. But ten shows tell you a lot. Twenty shows tell you nearly everything you need to know about where your performance is genuinely strong and where it’s just been getting lucky.

The log also reveals something subtler: the difference between wobbles caused by external factors and wobbles caused by internal ones. Some near-misses happen because a volunteer does something unexpected or a room is laid out strangely. Those are environmental. Other near-misses happen because I rushed, or because I didn’t fully set something up the way I usually do, or because I was slightly distracted during a crucial moment. Those are mine. The log helps me tell the difference.

Environmental fragility is worth noting but can’t always be eliminated. Internal fragility is always fixable.

The Midnight Review

My actual process: immediately after driving home (or in the hotel room if I’m away), I write the fragility notes while the show is still in my body. I can feel the moments I’m describing — there’s a kind of physical memory of uncertainty that fades quickly, so you have to catch it.

I keep this separate from my general show notes. The general notes are for what I want to develop, expand, cut, or change. The fragility log is specifically for what almost went wrong and what the warning sign was.

Then — and this is the part that took me a while to implement — I look at the fragility log before my next show. Not to make myself anxious. To prime myself. I want those almost-wrong moments in my conscious awareness going into a performance, because awareness of a fragile point is the first step to shoring it up.

The Counterintuitive Lesson

Here’s the thing that makes this practice feel strange at first: you’re actively looking for problems when none are visible. After a successful show, this feels almost ungrateful, like complaining about a gift. The audience didn’t know anything was wobbly. You pulled it off. Why not just celebrate?

Because “I pulled it off” is not the same as “this is solid.” Performers who mistake the first for the second are building their practice on luck, and luck is not a scalable strategy.

I learned to think about it differently. The near-miss is a gift from the show to me. The audience doesn’t get to see it. I do. It’s private information about the gap between where my performance is and where it appears to be, and that gap is where all the meaningful work happens.

Failures force learning. Near-misses offer it — but only if you’re paying attention.

Making It a Habit

The fragility log only works if it’s consistent. Doing it after three shows and skipping it after four defeats the purpose, because the pattern recognition requires enough data points to see anything.

The habit that made it stick for me: I link it to writing my mileage or expenses after corporate events, which I have to do anyway. Practical admin becomes the anchor for reflective practice. Unglamorous, but effective.

You don’t need a special system. A note in your phone, a voice memo, a paper notebook in your jacket pocket. The medium doesn’t matter. The consistency does.

Start small. After your next show, before you do anything else, write down the one moment where you felt least certain. Just one. That’s the beginning.

That one moment, and the ones that follow, will tell you more about your actual performance level than any number of successful shows. Because the show that almost broke is always more honest than the show that didn’t.

The failure you experienced three weeks later? It wasn’t a surprise. It was the thing you noticed and forgot.

Don’t forget what you almost broke. It’s trying to tell you something.

FL
Written by

Felix Lenhard is a strategy and innovation consultant turned card magician and co-founder of Vulpine Creations. He writes about what happens when you apply systematic thinking to learning a craft from scratch.